FSPA 3-player group Penultimate Round Crib Sheet

Rules of the Obvious:

If you're more than 4 points behind everyone ...
... you're moving down a group.
If you're more than 4 points ahead of anyone ...
... you're moving up a group.
If the score is 6-6-6 ...
... the last game determines placement.
If the score is 12-6-0 or 11-6-1 ...
... the last game is irrelevant.

Differences:

(Triplets are of the form You-X-Otherguy.)
To gain 4 points on person X ...
... you need 4-0-2.
To gain 3 points on person X ...
... you (still) need 4-0-2.
To gain 2 points on person X ...
... you need to win or have a 2-0-4.
To gain 1 point on person X ...
... you just need to defeat X.

Low scores and high scores:

If you have 4 points or less ...
... the only possible case where you can move up is when the score is 8-6-4 and the final score is an 8-8-8 three-way tie.
... and you're in third place, your final score has to tie or defeat the second-place player for you to stay in the group.
... and you're in second place, your final score has to defeat the third-place player for you to stay in the group.
... in all other cases, you'll move down.
If you have 8 points or more ...
... the only possible case where you can move down is when the score is 8-6-4 and the final score is an 8-8-8 three-way tie.
... and you're in first place, your final score has to defeat the second-place player for you to move up.
... and you're in second place, your final score has to tie or defeat the first-place player for you to move up.
... in all other cases, you'll stay in the group.

Cases where you have 5, 6, or 7 points:

If the scores are spread out so that you're three points or more from both other players (11-5-2, 9-6-3, 10-7-1, 10-6-2) ...
... you'll probably stay in your group. There's a small chance you'll move up (an 0-4-2 in all cases except 11-5-2) and a small chance you'll move down (an 2-0-4 in all cases except 10-7-1).
 
If you're the 5 in an 10-5-3 ...
... then you won't be moving up (duh). It'll be a fight to see who moves down. The third-place person needs to gain 2 points on you; make sure (s)he doesn't win the group and you don't get 0 MP, and you can stay in the group.
If you're the 7 in an 9-7-2 ...
... then you won't be moving down (duh). It'll be a fight to see who moves up. The second-place person needs to gain 2 points on you; make sure (s)he doesn't win the group and you don't get 0 MP, and you get to move up.
 
If you're the 5 in an 9-5-4 ...
... if you lose to the 4 person, you're moving down.
... if you win with 0-4-2, you're moving up.
... in all other cases, you stay in the group.
If you're the 7 in an 8-7-3 ...
... if you do better than the 8 person, you're moving up.
... if you lose with a 2-0-4, you're moving down.
... in all other cases, you stay in the group.
 
If you're tied with someone at 5 (8-5-5) ...
... one of the two of you is going to move down. The other one will most likely stay, unless the 8 person gets 0 MP (in which case the other one will move up).
If you're tied with someone at 7 (7-7-4) ...
... one of the two of you is going to move up. The other one will most likely stay, unless the 4 person gets 4 MP (in which case the other one will move down).
 
If you're the 6 in an 8-6-4 ...
... you will most likely move up if you win in the group, move down if you lose in the group, and stay if you remain dead average. The two exceptions are where you win or lose by a narrow margin (2-3-1 or 3-1-2) in which cases you stay in the group.
 
Finally, the complicated 7-6-5 situation...
... if you're the 7 or 6 and you win, you move up.
... if you're the 5 and you win, you'll move up in most cases. The only exception is a (2-1-3), in which case you'll stay, the 7 will move up, and the 6 will move down.
 
... if you're the 6 or 5 and you lose, you move down.
... if you're the 7 and you lose, you'll move down in most cases. The only exception is a (1-3-2), in which case you'll stay, the 6 will move up, and the 5 will move down.
 
... if you remain in second, you'll probably stay, except for the two exceptions (2-1-3 and 1-3-2) mentioned above.